Thursday, May 14, 2009

Healtcare Reform- Now or Never?

Indeed it does seem that change is imminent.
In order to have something in place before the next election cycle we may see a 3rd government run program slipped inbetween Medicaid and Medicare. This is the administration's opportunity to introduce a program that will eventually displace most private insurance for healthcare. Initially people will have a choice- but eventually few employers will want to pay for a more expensive, although responsive, private insurance plan. Fundamentally a 3rd program is the only way to actually dictate healthcare costs from the government's perspective. One can incentivize, cajole, extract promises, seek greater efficiency, but in the end if it is in the hands of private companies to set fees and approve procedures, the government does not control those costs. Obama also wants a legacy to his presidency he can point to and say 'I did this'. Just expanding private coverage does not provide that capstone. Look at the Massachusetts model: no one really got 'credit' for the program, it's still having problems, it's working but expensive. A 3rd government program can be implemented immediately,likely through CMS, and will result in additional hires to address unemployment- another one of Obama's associated promises. Private insurance cannot be relied upon to hire immediately. All the effort getting input from the stakeholders may ultimately just be a screen for implementing such a 3rd program. Obama has the votes in congress, he has Ted Kennedy to rally the country- I'm sure his team sees this as 'now or never'. We will see..

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